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davidson_us.txt
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davidson_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country davidson_us
Day 179
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.159 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.153 (1/day)
Population size (N) 142852
Initial number of cases (I0) 77
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.04
Critical number of susceptible 142852
Final state
Final number of cases 12570
Final number of susceptibles 130281
Daily forecast for 17-Sep-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10720 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00619387 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 111.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 244
Acceleration phase 191 (days)
Deceleration phase 254 (days)
Total duration 445 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 14-May-2020
Turning point 21-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 02-Aug-2021
Start of ending phase 21-Oct-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 179
Degrees of freedom 175
Root Mean Squared Error 58.0649
R-Squared 0.997
Adjusted R-Squared 0.997
F-statistics vs. zero model 18490.7
p-value 1.15929e-218
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 768.127
Exit condition (1=OK) 0