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dekalb_us.txt
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dekalb_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country dekalb_us
Day 214
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.071 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.037 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4395
Initial number of cases (I0) 18
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.884
Critical number of susceptible 4395
Final state
Final number of cases 3368
Final number of susceptibles 1026
Daily forecast for 22-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2816 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0333162 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 20.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 131
Acceleration phase 61 (days)
Deceleration phase 73 (days)
Total duration 134 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 31-May-2020
Turning point 31-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 12-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 23-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 214
Degrees of freedom 210
Root Mean Squared Error 146.622
R-Squared 0.981
Adjusted R-Squared 0.98
F-statistics vs. zero model 3500.03
p-value 5.82208e-179
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2124.75
Exit condition (1=OK) 1