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district_of_columbia.txt
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district_of_columbia.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country district_of_columbia
Day 215
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.248 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.241 (1/day)
Population size (N) 160138
Initial number of cases (I0) 424
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.026
Critical number of susceptible 160138
Final state
Final number of cases 16342
Final number of susceptibles 143795
Daily forecast for 23-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 8717 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00692842 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 100 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 32
Acceleration phase 35 (days)
Deceleration phase 107 (days)
Total duration 142 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 19-Mar-2020
Turning point 23-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 09-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 29-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 215
Degrees of freedom 211
Root Mean Squared Error 578.545
R-Squared 0.985
Adjusted R-Squared 0.985
F-statistics vs. zero model 4537.48
p-value 2.74861e-191
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 8403.85
Exit condition (1=OK) 0