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district_of_columbia_us.txt
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district_of_columbia_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country district_of_columbia_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.321 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.317 (1/day)
Population size (N) 296961
Initial number of cases (I0) 334
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.01
Critical number of susceptible 296962
Final state
Final number of cases 17256
Final number of susceptibles 279705
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 6287 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00343057 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 202 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 23
Acceleration phase 26 (days)
Deceleration phase 130 (days)
Total duration 156 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 19-Mar-2020
Turning point 14-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 22-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 25-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 548.658
R-Squared 0.987
Adjusted R-Squared 0.987
F-statistics vs. zero model 5302.07
p-value 3.22592e-201
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 8044.91
Exit condition (1=OK) 0