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dona_ana_us.txt
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dona_ana_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country dona_ana_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.121 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.103 (1/day)
Population size (N) 27552
Initial number of cases (I0) 35
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.171
Critical number of susceptible 27552
Final state
Final number of cases 7842
Final number of susceptibles 19709
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 7061 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0177274 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 39.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 188
Acceleration phase 104 (days)
Deceleration phase 116 (days)
Total duration 220 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 14-Jun-2020
Turning point 26-Sep-2020
Start of steady growth 20-Jan-2021
Start of ending phase 29-Aug-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 244.248
R-Squared 0.974
Adjusted R-Squared 0.973
F-statistics vs. zero model 2517.65
p-value 3.91548e-167
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 3581.38
Exit condition (1=OK) 0