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dubuque_us.txt
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dubuque_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country dubuque_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.058 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.041 (1/day)
Population size (N) 61169
Initial number of cases (I0) 42
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.426
Critical number of susceptible 61169
Final state
Final number of cases 32595
Final number of susceptibles 28573
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 28179 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0173865 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 39.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 311
Acceleration phase 118 (days)
Deceleration phase 133 (days)
Total duration 250 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 02-Oct-2020
Turning point 27-Jan-2021
Start of steady growth 09-Jun-2021
Start of ending phase 14-Feb-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 126.305
R-Squared 0.992
Adjusted R-Squared 0.992
F-statistics vs. zero model 8848.07
p-value 7.10678e-225
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1851.99
Exit condition (1=OK) 0