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duval_us.txt
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duval_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country duval_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.104 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.04 (1/day)
Population size (N) 35461
Initial number of cases (I0) 10
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.592
Critical number of susceptible 35462
Final state
Final number of cases 32060
Final number of susceptibles 3401
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 26989 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0636037 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 10.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 118
Acceleration phase 32 (days)
Deceleration phase 39 (days)
Total duration 72 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 15-Jun-2020
Turning point 18-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 26-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 06-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1025.79
R-Squared 0.994
Adjusted R-Squared 0.993
F-statistics vs. zero model 11349.3
p-value 2.05037e-236
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 15041
Exit condition (1=OK) 0