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elkhart_us.txt
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elkhart_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country elkhart_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.253 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.235 (1/day)
Population size (N) 67866
Initial number of cases (I0) 47
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.076
Critical number of susceptible 67866
Final state
Final number of cases 9981
Final number of susceptibles 57885
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 9047 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0180481 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 38.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 137
Acceleration phase 89 (days)
Deceleration phase 103 (days)
Total duration 192 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 09-May-2020
Turning point 06-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 17-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 27-May-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 336.986
R-Squared 0.985
Adjusted R-Squared 0.984
F-statistics vs. zero model 4271.11
p-value 6.42658e-190
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 4918.15
Exit condition (1=OK) 0