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elmore_us.txt
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elmore_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country elmore_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.159 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.134 (1/day)
Population size (N) 12747
Initial number of cases (I0) 14
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.181
Critical number of susceptible 12747
Final state
Final number of cases 3778
Final number of susceptibles 8968
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3405 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.02444 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 28.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 147
Acceleration phase 77 (days)
Deceleration phase 85 (days)
Total duration 162 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 30-May-2020
Turning point 16-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 09-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 20-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 73.5797
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 14169.4
p-value 8.74981e-246
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1076.38
Exit condition (1=OK) 0