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florence_us.txt
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florence_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country florence_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.32 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.283 (1/day)
Population size (N) 25319
Initial number of cases (I0) 4
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.131
Critical number of susceptible 25320
Final state
Final number of cases 5661
Final number of susceptibles 19657
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5256 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0370873 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 18.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 130
Acceleration phase 53 (days)
Deceleration phase 56 (days)
Total duration 110 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 07-Jun-2020
Turning point 30-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 25-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 13-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 124.509
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 18371.8
p-value 8.65595e-259
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1825.66
Exit condition (1=OK) 0