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florida.txt
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florida.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country florida
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.084 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.029 (1/day)
Population size (N) 818825
Initial number of cases (I0) 631
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.898
Critical number of susceptible 818825
Final state
Final number of cases 764184
Final number of susceptibles 54641
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 648224 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0551911 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 12.6 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 120
Acceleration phase 37 (days)
Deceleration phase 45 (days)
Total duration 82 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 13-Jun-2020
Turning point 20-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 03-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 24-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 17638
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 20027.7
p-value 8.38176e-263
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 258625
Exit condition (1=OK) 0