-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
fond_du_lac_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.61 KB
/
fond_du_lac_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country fond_du_lac_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.244 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.21 (1/day)
Population size (N) 44368
Initial number of cases (I0) 0
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.162
Critical number of susceptible 44368
Final state
Final number of cases 11798
Final number of susceptibles 32569
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10881 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0340688 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 20.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 237
Acceleration phase 60 (days)
Deceleration phase 63 (days)
Total duration 123 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 15-Sep-2020
Turning point 14-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 16-Jan-2021
Start of ending phase 19-May-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 197.339
R-Squared 0.963
Adjusted R-Squared 0.962
F-statistics vs. zero model 1850.09
p-value 1.03577e-152
Method
Total cases weight 0
Infection rate weight 1
Objective function value 272.77
Exit condition (1=OK) 0