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fort_bend_us.txt
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fort_bend_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country fort_bend_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 1.007 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.965 (1/day)
Population size (N) 223550
Initial number of cases (I0) 3
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.043
Critical number of susceptible 223550
Final state
Final number of cases 18211
Final number of susceptibles 205338
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total 17667
Increase 22
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 17674 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0414276 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 132
Acceleration phase 48 (days)
Deceleration phase 49 (days)
Total duration 97 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 14-Jun-2020
Turning point 01-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 19-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 25-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 714.082
R-Squared 0.988
Adjusted R-Squared 0.988
F-statistics vs. zero model 6227.01
p-value 7.10097e-208
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 10446.1
Exit condition (1=OK) 0