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galveston_us.txt
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galveston_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country galveston_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.102 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.035 (1/day)
Population size (N) 12909
Initial number of cases (I0) 4
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.912
Critical number of susceptible 12910
Final state
Final number of cases 12060
Final number of susceptibles 849
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10234 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0669569 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 10.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 112
Acceleration phase 31 (days)
Deceleration phase 37 (days)
Total duration 68 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 11-Jun-2020
Turning point 12-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 18-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 25-Oct-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 297.211
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 19888.5
p-value 1.76986e-262
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 4357.93
Exit condition (1=OK) 0