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gwinnett_us.txt
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gwinnett_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country gwinnett_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.169 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.133 (1/day)
Population size (N) 77867
Initial number of cases (I0) 69
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.275
Critical number of susceptible 77867
Final state
Final number of cases 31266
Final number of susceptibles 46601
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 27717 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0366209 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 18.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 124
Acceleration phase 54 (days)
Deceleration phase 60 (days)
Total duration 114 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 30-May-2020
Turning point 24-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 22-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 14-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 445.39
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 43480
p-value 6.65062e-299
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 6530.67
Exit condition (1=OK) 0