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hendricks_us.txt
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hendricks_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country hendricks_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.064 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.062 (1/day)
Population size (N) 356930
Initial number of cases (I0) 176
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.034
Critical number of susceptible 356930
Final state
Final number of cases 27927
Final number of susceptibles 329002
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 23332 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00215789 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 321.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 622
Acceleration phase 502 (days)
Deceleration phase 699 (days)
Total duration 1201 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 20-Jul-2020
Turning point 04-Dec-2021
Start of steady growth 03-Nov-2023
Start of ending phase 16-Feb-2027
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 111.351
R-Squared 0.985
Adjusted R-Squared 0.984
F-statistics vs. zero model 4539.29
p-value 2.21486e-193
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1628.93
Exit condition (1=OK) 0