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highlands_us.txt
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highlands_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country highlands_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.084 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.034 (1/day)
Population size (N) 2871
Initial number of cases (I0) 2
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.437
Critical number of susceptible 2871
Final state
Final number of cases 2539
Final number of susceptibles 332
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2130 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0493453 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 14 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 132
Acceleration phase 42 (days)
Deceleration phase 51 (days)
Total duration 92 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 21-Jun-2020
Turning point 01-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 21-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 22-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 58.1911
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 17657.1
p-value 6.05977e-257
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 853.247
Exit condition (1=OK) 1