-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
illinois.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.64 KB
/
illinois.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country illinois
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.064 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.058 (1/day)
Population size (N) 6.31196e+06
Initial number of cases (I0) 15582
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.085
Critical number of susceptible 6.31196e+06
Final state
Final number of cases 1.12346e+06
Final number of susceptibles 5.18849e+06
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 938366 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00510732 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 135.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 278
Acceleration phase 228 (days)
Deceleration phase 315 (days)
Total duration 543 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 11-May-2020
Turning point 25-Dec-2020
Start of steady growth 05-Nov-2021
Start of ending phase 02-May-2023
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 12579.8
R-Squared 0.984
Adjusted R-Squared 0.984
F-statistics vs. zero model 4384.23
p-value 1.78737e-192
Method
Total cases weight 0.5
Infection rate weight 0.5
Objective function value 99082.5
Exit condition (1=OK) 0