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jefferson_us.txt
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jefferson_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country jefferson_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.068 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.031 (1/day)
Population size (N) 29602
Initial number of cases (I0) 85
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.184
Critical number of susceptible 29602
Final state
Final number of cases 24941
Final number of susceptibles 4660
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 20847 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.036891 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 18.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 135
Acceleration phase 55 (days)
Deceleration phase 67 (days)
Total duration 123 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 10-Jun-2020
Turning point 04-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 11-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 10-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 502.136
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 18112.4
p-value 3.96801e-258
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 7362.77
Exit condition (1=OK) 0