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kane_us.txt
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kane_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country kane_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.257 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.254 (1/day)
Population size (N) 535648
Initial number of cases (I0) 244
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.013
Critical number of susceptible 535648
Final state
Final number of cases 24167
Final number of susceptibles 511480
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 13718 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00333174 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 208 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 93
Acceleration phase 92 (days)
Deceleration phase 241 (days)
Total duration 332 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 23-Mar-2020
Turning point 23-Jun-2020
Start of steady growth 18-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 17-Jan-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 778.73
R-Squared 0.973
Adjusted R-Squared 0.972
F-statistics vs. zero model 2328.28
p-value 1.37429e-163
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 11418.4
Exit condition (1=OK) 0