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kansas.txt
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kansas.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country kansas
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.086 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.068 (1/day)
Population size (N) 388348
Initial number of cases (I0) 718
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.252
Critical number of susceptible 388349
Final state
Final number of cases 147877
Final number of susceptibles 240471
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 130774 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0173331 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 40 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 208
Acceleration phase 110 (days)
Deceleration phase 124 (days)
Total duration 234 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 28-Jun-2020
Turning point 16-Oct-2020
Start of steady growth 17-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 09-Oct-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 870.823
R-Squared 0.999
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 48052.1
p-value 1.45305e-303
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 12768.8
Exit condition (1=OK) 0