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kenton_us.txt
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kenton_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country kenton_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.065 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.05 (1/day)
Population size (N) 8459
Initial number of cases (I0) 63
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.283
Critical number of susceptible 8460
Final state
Final number of cases 3661
Final number of susceptibles 4797
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3124 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0146932 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 47.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 158
Acceleration phase 112 (days)
Deceleration phase 139 (days)
Total duration 251 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 07-May-2020
Turning point 27-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 13-Jan-2021
Start of ending phase 21-Sep-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 58.3677
R-Squared 0.994
Adjusted R-Squared 0.994
F-statistics vs. zero model 11741.1
p-value 5.46036e-238
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 855.838
Exit condition (1=OK) 0