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kentucky.txt
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kentucky.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country kentucky
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.066 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.048 (1/day)
Population size (N) 503430
Initial number of cases (I0) 961
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.359
Critical number of susceptible 503431
Final state
Final number of cases 242858
Final number of susceptibles 260572
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 211147 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.017396 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 39.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 237
Acceleration phase 114 (days)
Deceleration phase 129 (days)
Total duration 243 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 23-Jul-2020
Turning point 14-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 23-Mar-2021
Start of ending phase 20-Nov-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1078.63
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 46358.1
p-value 6.84469e-302
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 15815.8
Exit condition (1=OK) 0