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lebanon_us.txt
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lebanon_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country lebanon_us
Day 216
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.05 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.048 (1/day)
Population size (N) 24403
Initial number of cases (I0) 211
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.035
Critical number of susceptible 24404
Final state
Final number of cases 4136
Final number of susceptibles 20267
Daily forecast for 24-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 1986 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00211057 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 328.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 56
Acceleration phase 75 (days)
Deceleration phase 307 (days)
Total duration 382 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 03-Mar-2020
Turning point 17-May-2020
Start of steady growth 20-Mar-2021
Start of ending phase 07-Apr-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 216
Degrees of freedom 212
Root Mean Squared Error 137.429
R-Squared 0.959
Adjusted R-Squared 0.958
F-statistics vs. zero model 1565.89
p-value 2.49541e-144
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2001
Exit condition (1=OK) 0