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lexington_us.txt
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lexington_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country lexington_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.07 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.037 (1/day)
Population size (N) 12413
Initial number of cases (I0) 51
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.869
Critical number of susceptible 12414
Final state
Final number of cases 9450
Final number of susceptibles 2962
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 7903 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0325046 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 21.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 134
Acceleration phase 62 (days)
Deceleration phase 75 (days)
Total duration 137 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 02-Jun-2020
Turning point 03-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 17-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 04-Mar-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 249.075
R-Squared 0.993
Adjusted R-Squared 0.993
F-statistics vs. zero model 9743.16
p-value 2.43953e-229
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 3652.16
Exit condition (1=OK) 1