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licking_us.txt
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licking_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country licking_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.053 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.024 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3577
Initial number of cases (I0) 19
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.204
Critical number of susceptible 3577
Final state
Final number of cases 3034
Final number of susceptibles 543
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2534 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0290939 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 23.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 150
Acceleration phase 70 (days)
Deceleration phase 85 (days)
Total duration 155 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 10-Jun-2020
Turning point 19-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 12-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 16-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 81.2065
R-Squared 0.99
Adjusted R-Squared 0.99
F-statistics vs. zero model 7052.67
p-value 1.34059e-213
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1187.95
Exit condition (1=OK) 0