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lodi.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.59 KB
/
lodi.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country lodi
Day 246
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.085 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.041 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4479
Initial number of cases (I0) 450
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.88
Critical number of susceptible 4480
Final state
Final number of cases 3792
Final number of susceptibles 686
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3070 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0442442 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 15.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 24
Acceleration phase 31 (days)
Deceleration phase 48 (days)
Total duration 79 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 24-Feb-2020
Start of acceleration 17-Feb-2020
Turning point 19-Mar-2020
Start of steady growth 06-May-2020
Start of ending phase 24-Jul-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 246
Degrees of freedom 242
Root Mean Squared Error 178.257
R-Squared 0.966
Adjusted R-Squared 0.965
F-statistics vs. zero model 2191.08
p-value 4.76322e-175
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2773.02
Exit condition (1=OK) 1