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los_angeles_us.txt
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los_angeles_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country los_angeles_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.071 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.038 (1/day)
Population size (N) 408794
Initial number of cases (I0) 2916
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.878
Critical number of susceptible 408795
Final state
Final number of cases 313700
Final number of susceptibles 95093
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 261861 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0336615 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 20.6 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 113
Acceleration phase 59 (days)
Deceleration phase 72 (days)
Total duration 131 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 15-May-2020
Turning point 13-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 23-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 02-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 4211.84
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 43582.9
p-value 5.16105e-299
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 61757.6
Exit condition (1=OK) 0