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louisiana.txt
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louisiana.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country louisiana
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.083 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.029 (1/day)
Population size (N) 162486
Initial number of cases (I0) 134
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.851
Critical number of susceptible 162487
Final state
Final number of cases 151038
Final number of susceptibles 11447
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 127958 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0541122 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 12.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 121
Acceleration phase 38 (days)
Deceleration phase 46 (days)
Total duration 84 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 13-Jun-2020
Turning point 21-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 05-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 28-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 26378.4
R-Squared 0.806
Adjusted R-Squared 0.802
F-statistics vs. zero model 411.605
p-value 8.53473e-89
Method
Total cases weight 0
Infection rate weight 1
Objective function value 9481.14
Exit condition (1=OK) 1