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mahoning_us.txt
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mahoning_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country mahoning_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.179 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.178 (1/day)
Population size (N) 121453
Initial number of cases (I0) 98
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.005
Critical number of susceptible 121453
Final state
Final number of cases 5599
Final number of susceptibles 115853
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 1471 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00108915 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 636.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 30
Acceleration phase 36 (days)
Deceleration phase 278 (days)
Total duration 313 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 17-Mar-2020
Turning point 21-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 24-Jan-2021
Start of ending phase 03-Dec-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 90.1698
R-Squared 0.992
Adjusted R-Squared 0.992
F-statistics vs. zero model 9338.65
p-value 2.24997e-227
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1322.15
Exit condition (1=OK) 0