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manatee_us.txt
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manatee_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country manatee_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.087 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.029 (1/day)
Population size (N) 13198
Initial number of cases (I0) 9
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.004
Critical number of susceptible 13199
Final state
Final number of cases 12419
Final number of susceptibles 779
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10565 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0578577 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 12 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 115
Acceleration phase 35 (days)
Deceleration phase 43 (days)
Total duration 78 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 10-Jun-2020
Turning point 15-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 27-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 13-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 363.752
R-Squared 0.994
Adjusted R-Squared 0.994
F-statistics vs. zero model 12978.2
p-value 1.22334e-242
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 5333.65
Exit condition (1=OK) 0