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marathon_us.txt
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marathon_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country marathon_us
Day 211
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.08 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.045 (1/day)
Population size (N) 34750
Initial number of cases (I0) 1
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.766
Critical number of susceptible 34751
Final state
Final number of cases 25001
Final number of susceptibles 9749
Daily forecast for 19-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 21032 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0348223 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 19.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 257
Acceleration phase 59 (days)
Deceleration phase 70 (days)
Total duration 130 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 05-Oct-2020
Turning point 04-Dec-2020
Start of steady growth 12-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 21-Jun-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 211
Degrees of freedom 207
Root Mean Squared Error 170.852
R-Squared 0.966
Adjusted R-Squared 0.965
F-statistics vs. zero model 2079.27
p-value 3.19276e-154
Method
Total cases weight 0.5
Infection rate weight 0.5
Objective function value 1381.27
Exit condition (1=OK) 0