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massachusetts.txt
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massachusetts.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country massachusetts
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.088 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.036 (1/day)
Population size (N) 141090
Initial number of cases (I0) 7821
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.326
Critical number of susceptible 141091
Final state
Final number of cases 126427
Final number of susceptibles 14663
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 105153 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0523546 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 13.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 38
Acceleration phase 34 (days)
Deceleration phase 45 (days)
Total duration 78 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 26-Mar-2020
Turning point 29-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 13-Jun-2020
Start of ending phase 30-Aug-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 6401.48
R-Squared 0.973
Adjusted R-Squared 0.973
F-statistics vs. zero model 2420.65
p-value 2.37218e-165
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 93864.1
Exit condition (1=OK) 1