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mckinley_us.txt
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mckinley_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country mckinley_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.6 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.568 (1/day)
Population size (N) 38241
Initial number of cases (I0) 23
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.056
Critical number of susceptible 38242
Final state
Final number of cases 4362
Final number of susceptibles 33879
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3869 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0319665 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 21.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 62
Acceleration phase 44 (days)
Deceleration phase 54 (days)
Total duration 98 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 09-Apr-2020
Turning point 23-May-2020
Start of steady growth 16-Jul-2020
Start of ending phase 22-Oct-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 118.612
R-Squared 0.994
Adjusted R-Squared 0.994
F-statistics vs. zero model 11461.2
p-value 7.18979e-237
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1739.2
Exit condition (1=OK) 0