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mclean_us.txt
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mclean_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country mclean_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.236 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.172 (1/day)
Population size (N) 8725
Initial number of cases (I0) 0
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.368
Critical number of susceptible 8726
Final state
Final number of cases 4232
Final number of susceptibles 4493
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3701 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0634887 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 10.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 164
Acceleration phase 33 (days)
Deceleration phase 36 (days)
Total duration 69 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 01-Aug-2020
Turning point 02-Sep-2020
Start of steady growth 08-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 16-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 170.867
R-Squared 0.984
Adjusted R-Squared 0.984
F-statistics vs. zero model 4828.65
p-value 6.5167e-197
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2505.42
Exit condition (1=OK) 0