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michigan.txt
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michigan.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country michigan
Day 204
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.045 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.043 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3.68555e+06
Initial number of cases (I0) 12581
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.042
Critical number of susceptible 3.68555e+06
Final state
Final number of cases 484120
Final number of susceptibles 3.20143e+06
Daily forecast for 12-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 310687 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00198497 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 349.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 210
Acceleration phase 216 (days)
Deceleration phase 498 (days)
Total duration 715 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 15-Mar-2020
Turning point 18-Oct-2020
Start of steady growth 28-Feb-2022
Start of ending phase 13-Feb-2024
Statistics
Number of observations 204
Degrees of freedom 200
Root Mean Squared Error 4540.45
R-Squared 0.986
Adjusted R-Squared 0.986
F-statistics vs. zero model 4690.52
p-value 5.09196e-185
Method
Total cases weight 0.5
Infection rate weight 0.5
Objective function value 35892.9
Exit condition (1=OK) 0