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milwaukee_us.txt
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milwaukee_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country milwaukee_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.187 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.175 (1/day)
Population size (N) 420832
Initial number of cases (I0) 359
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.067
Critical number of susceptible 420832
Final state
Final number of cases 56978
Final number of susceptibles 363853
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 50509 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0119509 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 58 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 169
Acceleration phase 121 (days)
Deceleration phase 147 (days)
Total duration 268 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 10-May-2020
Turning point 07-Sep-2020
Start of steady growth 01-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 27-Oct-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 959.214
R-Squared 0.992
Adjusted R-Squared 0.992
F-statistics vs. zero model 9208.94
p-value 1.00028e-226
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 14064.8
Exit condition (1=OK) 0