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minnehaha_us.txt
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minnehaha_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country minnehaha_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.016 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.009 (1/day)
Population size (N) 144843
Initial number of cases (I0) 1035
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.716
Critical number of susceptible 144844
Final state
Final number of cases 102539
Final number of susceptibles 42304
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 85887 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00686761 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 100.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 526
Acceleration phase 286 (days)
Deceleration phase 346 (days)
Total duration 632 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 17-Nov-2020
Turning point 30-Aug-2021
Start of steady growth 11-Aug-2022
Start of ending phase 04-May-2024
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 641.199
R-Squared 0.924
Adjusted R-Squared 0.923
F-statistics vs. zero model 867.58
p-value 4.38101e-119
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 9357.99
Exit condition (1=OK) 0