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mississippi.txt
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mississippi.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country mississippi
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.046 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.014 (1/day)
Population size (N) 133406
Initial number of cases (I0) 1181
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.249
Critical number of susceptible 133407
Final state
Final number of cases 127669
Final number of susceptibles 5737
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 109399 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.031697 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 21.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 133
Acceleration phase 64 (days)
Deceleration phase 77 (days)
Total duration 141 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 31-May-2020
Turning point 02-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 19-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 08-Mar-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 2055.85
R-Squared 0.997
Adjusted R-Squared 0.997
F-statistics vs. zero model 25217.3
p-value 1.58688e-273
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 30144.7
Exit condition (1=OK) 0