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mohave_us.txt
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mohave_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country mohave_us
Day 215
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.082 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.025 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4433
Initial number of cases (I0) 5
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.273
Critical number of susceptible 4433
Final state
Final number of cases 4240
Final number of susceptibles 192
Daily forecast for 23-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3635 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0567197 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 12.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 110
Acceleration phase 36 (days)
Deceleration phase 43 (days)
Total duration 79 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 04-Jun-2020
Turning point 10-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 22-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 09-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 215
Degrees of freedom 211
Root Mean Squared Error 75.8511
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 33791.2
p-value 1.13943e-282
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1101.81
Exit condition (1=OK) 1