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monterey_us.txt
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monterey_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country monterey_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.077 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.035 (1/day)
Population size (N) 14790
Initial number of cases (I0) 17
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.17
Critical number of susceptible 14791
Final state
Final number of cases 12401
Final number of susceptibles 2388
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10369 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0415434 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 141
Acceleration phase 50 (days)
Deceleration phase 60 (days)
Total duration 109 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 22-Jun-2020
Turning point 10-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 09-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 27-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 76.5038
R-Squared 1
Adjusted R-Squared 1
F-statistics vs. zero model 200420
p-value 0
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1121.77
Exit condition (1=OK) 0