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muscogee_us.txt
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muscogee_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country muscogee_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.056 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.007 (1/day)
Population size (N) 6357
Initial number of cases (I0) 18
Basic reproduction number (R0) 8.347
Critical number of susceptible 6358
Final state
Final number of cases 6356
Final number of susceptibles 1
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5953 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0490928 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 14.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 115
Acceleration phase 41 (days)
Deceleration phase 45 (days)
Total duration 86 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 04-Jun-2020
Turning point 15-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 29-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 23-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 105.786
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 38913.3
p-value 1.39622e-292
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1547.51
Exit condition (1=OK) 1