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nebraska.txt
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nebraska.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country nebraska
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.057 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.048 (1/day)
Population size (N) 828756
Initial number of cases (I0) 1815
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.187
Critical number of susceptible 828756
Final state
Final number of cases 256403
Final number of susceptibles 572352
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 227676 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00900977 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 76.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 325
Acceleration phase 197 (days)
Deceleration phase 226 (days)
Total duration 423 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 28-Jul-2020
Turning point 10-Feb-2021
Start of steady growth 24-Sep-2021
Start of ending phase 20-Nov-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 2041.86
R-Squared 0.986
Adjusted R-Squared 0.985
F-statistics vs. zero model 4757.83
p-value 1.56107e-195
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 29869.9
Exit condition (1=OK) 0