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new_hanover_us.txt
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new_hanover_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country new_hanover_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.081 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.048 (1/day)
Population size (N) 8273
Initial number of cases (I0) 18
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.691
Critical number of susceptible 8273
Final state
Final number of cases 5709
Final number of susceptibles 2563
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4809 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0332345 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 20.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 144
Acceleration phase 61 (days)
Deceleration phase 72 (days)
Total duration 134 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 13-Jun-2020
Turning point 13-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 25-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 07-Mar-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 161.157
R-Squared 0.991
Adjusted R-Squared 0.991
F-statistics vs. zero model 7916.93
p-value 6.40701e-219
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2357.53
Exit condition (1=OK) 1