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new_haven_us.txt
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new_haven_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country new_haven_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.218 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.075 (1/day)
Population size (N) 14304
Initial number of cases (I0) 44
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.899
Critical number of susceptible 14304
Final state
Final number of cases 13361
Final number of susceptibles 943
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 11333 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.14275 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 4.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 37
Acceleration phase 14 (days)
Deceleration phase 17 (days)
Total duration 32 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 13-Apr-2020
Turning point 28-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 15-May-2020
Start of ending phase 16-Jun-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1162.34
R-Squared 0.926
Adjusted R-Squared 0.925
F-statistics vs. zero model 1062.28
p-value 1.36017e-128
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 17043.2
Exit condition (1=OK) 1