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new_london_us.txt
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new_london_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country new_london_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.015 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.007 (1/day)
Population size (N) 42463
Initial number of cases (I0) 336
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.99
Critical number of susceptible 42464
Final state
Final number of cases 34013
Final number of susceptibles 8450
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 28361 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00746497 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 92.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 511
Acceleration phase 267 (days)
Deceleration phase 327 (days)
Total duration 594 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 21-Nov-2020
Turning point 15-Aug-2021
Start of steady growth 08-Jul-2022
Start of ending phase 22-Feb-2024
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 274.605
R-Squared 0.877
Adjusted R-Squared 0.875
F-statistics vs. zero model 505.169
p-value 4.7279e-97
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 4026.51
Exit condition (1=OK) 0