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norfolk_us.txt
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norfolk_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country norfolk_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.098 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.051 (1/day)
Population size (N) 13453
Initial number of cases (I0) 775
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.798
Critical number of susceptible 13453
Final state
Final number of cases 10657
Final number of susceptibles 2796
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 8676 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0464708 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 14.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 33
Acceleration phase 33 (days)
Deceleration phase 47 (days)
Total duration 80 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 22-Mar-2020
Turning point 24-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 10-Jun-2020
Start of ending phase 29-Aug-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 427.824
R-Squared 0.981
Adjusted R-Squared 0.981
F-statistics vs. zero model 3537.96
p-value 1.21555e-182
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 6273.12
Exit condition (1=OK) 1