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olmsted_us.txt
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olmsted_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country olmsted_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.149 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.138 (1/day)
Population size (N) 33288
Initial number of cases (I0) 39
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.081
Critical number of susceptible 33288
Final state
Final number of cases 5325
Final number of susceptibles 27962
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 4705 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0113286 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 61.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 180
Acceleration phase 129 (days)
Deceleration phase 157 (days)
Total duration 286 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 13-May-2020
Turning point 18-Sep-2020
Start of steady growth 22-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 05-Dec-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 65.5396
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 14429.9
p-value 1.4553e-247
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 960.999
Exit condition (1=OK) 0