-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
onondaga_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.61 KB
/
onondaga_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country onondaga_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.318 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.316 (1/day)
Population size (N) 164843
Initial number of cases (I0) 82
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.006
Critical number of susceptible 164843
Final state
Final number of cases 6326
Final number of susceptibles 158516
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2138 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00207507 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 334 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 34
Acceleration phase 36 (days)
Deceleration phase 196 (days)
Total duration 233 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 19-Mar-2020
Turning point 25-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 07-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 28-Jun-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 168.184
R-Squared 0.987
Adjusted R-Squared 0.987
F-statistics vs. zero model 5346.36
p-value 1.3351e-201
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2466.06
Exit condition (1=OK) 0