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orangeburg_us.txt
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orangeburg_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country orangeburg_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.088 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.028 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3496
Initial number of cases (I0) 1
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.128
Critical number of susceptible 3496
Final state
Final number of cases 3317
Final number of susceptibles 179
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2831 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0600351 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 11.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 118
Acceleration phase 34 (days)
Deceleration phase 41 (days)
Total duration 75 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 14-Jun-2020
Turning point 18-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 28-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 12-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 39.3311
R-Squared 0.999
Adjusted R-Squared 0.999
F-statistics vs. zero model 80085.3
p-value 0
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 576.712
Exit condition (1=OK) 0